Permanent project revision
Revision 2026-08-20-claim-baseline · effective 2026-07-26
Superseded. A later revision exists: 2026-08-21-source-dates →
Created the first structured Evidence Passport with 11 claims and 10 source dossiers.
sha256:3fe860cc88e7e338430922bf2aad9f489071a3bf3ee054d06f6875cad6761c81
add /evidencePassport — Added claim-level evidence mapping and source dossiers.add /revisionHistory — Established a permanent, hash-addressed baseline revision.The text below is copied verbatim from the published record. Each claim names the source dossiers that carry it; caveats stay attached to the claim they qualify.
clm-ea34b7615574e338
quantitative
Since 26 March 2026 Lagos State has held a parametric flood insurance policy: instead of assessing damage after a flood, the contract pays when satellite-observed flood extent crosses an agreed threshold, so money moves without a loss adjuster
clm-812cb695c62a0f3d
descriptive
ICEYE radar satellites supply the flood footprints, JBA Risk Management built the model, AXA Mansard fronts the risk in Nigeria, and Swiss Re, African Risk Capacity Ltd and Africa Re carry it
clm-28fa9c60bda07c43
quantitative
Cover runs to US$7.5 million per event across seven of the state's twenty local government areas
clm-94eaea7f101d542f
descriptive
The trigger thresholds are undisclosed, so no resident can check whether a flood should have paid
clm-9b14d5a6a015b961
quantitative
The premium is undisclosed, and Germany's InsuResilience Solutions Fund paid 90 per cent of the first year and keeps co-financing years two and three, so Lagos has never carried the full cost
clm-eb66514fc439966e
quantitative
as of late July 2026, in the middle of the rainy season, no payout has been reported
clm-c61947377769b871
descriptive
Money would go to the state, which has undertaken to spend it on relief and cash transfers under its Flood Contingency Plan, identifying recipients through the LASRRA resident register
clm-f3c66bf62b8d3a7b
quantitative
UNDP's Insurance and Risk Finance Facility and the InsuResilience Solutions Fund state cover of up to US$7.5 million per flood event across seven local government areas, and a protected population of "up to 4 million" — a headcount of those areas rather than a register of insured people
clm-019099bcf8914e1f
descriptive
ICEYE's Mike Bennett told business a.m. that radar flood observations reduce basis risk compared with rain or river gauges and that payment should take under a month — a supplier statement about an untested policy, not a measured result
clm-d1bd28e98fa1d2a9
descriptive
that only converts into accountability if the parameters are public and the money is traceable
clm-24cb2031efb1e1cc
quantitative
the contract pays the state rather than the flooded household, so the four million people in the headline are beneficiaries by policy intention, not by contract
This layer records what is known about each source, what is still missing, and the exact snapshot this page is rendering. A missing date, archive or hash stays visible as missing.
Awaiting operator and domain-expert review; publication of this revision implies neither.
sha256:3fe860cc88e7e338430922bf2aad9f489071a3bf3ee054d06f6875cad6761c81
src-7f014b949e93363ePrimary joint announcement. Verifies the 26 March 2026 go-live, the US$7.5m limit, seven local government areas, up to 4 million people, the full partner list, and the three-year term. Confirms payouts go to the state for relief and cash transfers under the Lagos Flood Contingency Plan. States no trigger threshold.
src-1634b4305b337824The premium financier's own release, and the source for the premium split: 90 per cent of year one from ISF, with Lagos State committing to more than 10 per cent in years two and three while ISF continues to co-finance. Names the Lagos agencies involved (SDG office, Finance, Budget and Economic Planning, LASEMA). Does not disclose the premium amount.
src-05c13afd9fd3db56Design milestone eight months before go-live. Verifies that the trigger is 'pre-agreed flood triggers based on satellite flood footprint data', that regulatory approval was obtained, and that premium financing was still outstanding at that point. Discloses no numerical threshold.
src-af4b906cdd6a3de4The most technically specific source found. ICEYE's Mike Bennett describes synthetic aperture radar flood observation rather than proxy rain or river gauges, argues it lowers basis risk, and says the cover targets severe and catastrophic events, not routine flooding. A supplier account, used as such.
src-6fcecd03401dde3fIndependent risk-transfer trade press, corroborates the limit, the 90 per cent first-year premium finance, the three-year structure and the risk carriers (AXA Mansard fronting, Swiss Re and African Risk Capacity Ltd). Explicitly notes the premium is not disclosed.
src-7b2ca8ae30a4436eNigerian daily; the only source naming the covered areas — Ajeromi-Ifelodun, Alimosho, Amuwo-Odofin, Apapa, Kosofe, Ojo and Somolu — and the LASRRA register's use for identifying beneficiaries, who pay nothing. Caution: the fetched body stated 'seven' but listed only six, the seventh (Somolu) appearing in the indexed version; the list should be re-checked against a Lagos State document when one is published.
src-aa0dba4115642e09Covers the public launch ceremony of 29 April 2026 — the same policy, not a second scheme — and adds Africa Re as lead technical reinsurance partner, which the March releases omit. This is also where the 'sub-Saharan Africa's first' framing originates; it is the outlet's and the consortium's wording, not an independently established fact.
src-c691d8ba58ba6849Used as a counterweight to the 'first in sub-Saharan Africa' claim: ARC Ltd wrote a sovereign parametric flood policy for Madagascar, signed January 2026, before Lagos. Lagos's defensible distinction is being sub-sovereign, at state rather than national level.
src-70e5bdc452e96667Establishes that the work began with a kick-off workshop in May 2023 and that both rainfall and flood indices were originally on the table, which is how the eventual satellite-footprint trigger can be dated as a design choice rather than a given. Covers pluvial, fluvial and coastal flooding.
src-0aaaea9dd72323e5FETCH FAILED — the PDF returned an empty body over both http and https on 26 July 2026 and could not be read. Listed because it is the one public document likely to contain the index definition, payout ladder and basis-risk analysis; every claim in this entry is sourced without it, and a future check should retry it.