Permanent project revision

Critical Episode Management: A Next-Day Forecast With Legal Force

Revision 2026-08-20-evidence-baseline · effective 2026-07-26

Current revision. This is the snapshot used by the live entity page.

unreviewed

Created the first structured Evidence Passport with 9 claims and 13 source dossiers.

sha256:a9bcf350d3042581aa995762b79c08acfa1944a51a36195fb12d843804433ea1

All revisions → Current entity page →

Change set

add /evidencePassport — Added claim-level evidence mapping and source dossiers.
add /revisionHistory — Established a permanent, hash-addressed baseline revision.

9: of 9 claims mapped
13: source dossiers
7: publication dates recorded
0: archives linked
0: exact locators
0: content captures hashed

Claims, one by one

The text below is copied verbatim from the published record. Each claim names the source dossiers that carry it; caveats stay attached to the claim they qualify.

Claim 1 clm-be48f3ac2b864247 descriptive

The Seremi del Medio Ambiente for the Region Metropolitana watches ten automatic MACAM stations

Published field: snippet · verbatim
Mapping: mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says: The environment ministry's regional air portal states that the map carries the ten MACAM monitoring stations, updated live during the episode-management season.
Caveat: No claim-specific caveat recorded

Sources carrying this claim

Aire Region Metropolitana (MMA) — Calidad del Aire

Claim 2 clm-c48b5c4d12b4f335 quantitative

runs the Cassmassi model — a multiple linear regression proposed in 1999 — to predict the next day's maximum 24-hour particulate average

Published field: snippet · verbatim
Mapping: mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says: The peer-reviewed paper names the model, its author, the year it was proposed, its multiple-linear-regression form and that it forecasts the next day's maximum 24-hour PM10 average.
Caveat: No claim-specific caveat recorded

Sources carrying this claim

Alvarado, Silva & Caceres — Modelacion de episodios criticos de contaminacion por material particulado (PM10) en Santiago de Chile, Gac Sanit 2010;24(6):480-487

Claim 3 clm-93376672a8eb34d0 quantitative

Every winter from 1 May to 31 August, Santiago manages its air by forecast rather than by reading

Published field: snippet · verbatim
Mapping: mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says: The ministry's launch notice gives the season's end date and describes the annual episode-management period set by the decontamination plan.
Caveat: No claim-specific caveat recorded

Sources carrying this claim

MMA — Autoridades lanzan Gestion de Episodios Criticos (GEC) 2026 para la Region Metropolitana

Claim 4 clm-8a68dc25174a1735 quantitative

for the 2026 season the environmental regulator listed one of 55 affected large establishments as obliged to stop

Published field: snippet · verbatim
Mapping: mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says: The regulator's updated resolution states that one of the 55 affected large establishments must halt its stationary sources in a critical episode.
Caveat: The regulator's earlier list for the same season (Res. Ex. 1258/2026) named five of 55; the entry uses the updated list.

Sources carrying this claim

SMA — GEC 2026: actualiza listado de paralizacion de grandes establecimientos (Res. Ex. 1365/2026)

Claim 5 clm-c2ac3d0d4371c710 quantitative

a 66% fall over the decade

Published field: impact · verbatim
Mapping: mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says: The ministry's balance states the ten-year fall in hours of exposure to high pollution.
Caveat: Ministry self-reporting; no independent recomputation of the hour counts exists.

Sources carrying this claim

MMA — Mejora la calidad del aire en la RM: en una decada disminuye 66% la exposicion

Claim 6 clm-4801932431603b24 quantitative

the third-best winter since the plan began operating (MMA balance, 2025)

Published field: impact · verbatim
Mapping: mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says: The same balance ranks 2025 as the third year with the fewest hours in critical episodes since the first plan started operating.
Caveat: No claim-specific caveat recorded

Sources carrying this claim

MMA — Mejora la calidad del aire en la RM: en una decada disminuye 66% la exposicion

Claim 7 clm-3776a774f71d0e9d quantitative

by 16 June 2026 the region had recorded 16 episodes (13 alerts, 3 pre-emergencies) against one at the same date in 2025 and none in 2024, in a season running a 79.2% rainfall deficit (Fundacion Terram, 16 June 2026)

Published field: impact · verbatim
Mapping: mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says: The NGO's 16 June 2026 piece gives the season's episode count, the comparison with the two previous years and the 79.2% rainfall deficit.
Caveat: No claim-specific caveat recorded

Sources carrying this claim

Fundacion Terram — Region Metropolitana supera los episodios ambientales criticos de ultimos dos anos (16 June 2026)

Claim 8 clm-75d4c84a117b884f quantitative

Barraza et al. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2017) found wood burning at 12.3% of downtown PM2.5

Published field: impact · verbatim
Mapping: mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says: The peer-reviewed source-apportionment study resolves the downtown PM2.5 sources over 1998-2012, wood burning among them, using two receptor models on 1,243 filter samples.
Caveat: The abstract as fetched gives the method and the source set; the 12.3% share sits in the paper's results table.

Sources carrying this claim

Barraza, Lambert, Jorquera, Villalobos & Gallardo — Temporal evolution of main ambient PM2.5 sources in Santiago, Chile, from 1998 to 2012, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 17, 10093-10107 (2017)

Claim 9 clm-3b2bd3faea2b577b quantitative

meeting the plan's emission targets releases a plant from the shutdown list, so by 2026 only one of 55 remained on it

Published field: lesson · verbatim
Mapping: mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says: The regulator's list is the count: one of 55 affected establishments remains obliged to stop, the rest having met the plan's requirements.
Caveat: No claim-specific caveat recorded

Sources carrying this claim

SMA — GEC 2026: actualiza listado de paralizacion de grandes establecimientos (Res. Ex. 1365/2026)

Source dossiers and revision state

This layer records what is known about each source, what is still missing, and the exact snapshot this page is rendering. A missing date, archive or hash stays visible as missing.

unreviewed Revision 2026-08-20-evidence-baseline effective 2026-07-26 · created 2026-08-20

Awaiting operator and domain-expert review; publication of this revision implies neither.

sha256:a9bcf350d3042581aa995762b79c08acfa1944a51a36195fb12d843804433ea1

Revision history → Permanent version link → Machine-readable record → Evidence Constitution →

9: of 9 claims mapped
13: source dossiers
7: publication dates recorded
0: archives linked
0: exact locators
0: content captures hashed

Governance facts carried by the record

Operator: Seremi del Medio Ambiente Region Metropolitana (station monitoring, next-day forecast, recommendation); declarations issued by the Delegacion Presidencial Regional Metropolitana; enforcement split between the Superintendencia del Medio Ambiente (large industrial establishments), the Seremi de Salud RM (heaters and health inspections), transport authorities and Carabineros (vehicle restriction) and CONAF (agricultural burning)
Actor types: national-government, regional-government
Funding model: public
Funding description: Not recorded
Cost: Not recorded
Ownership: Not recorded
Decision rights: Not recorded
Exit conditions: Not recorded

13 source dossiers

MMA — Autoridades lanzan Gestion de Episodios Criticos (GEC) 2026 para la Region Metropolitana mma.gob.cl · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-4a961397ed94dc15
Publisher: Name not classified · mma.gob.cl
Type / language: web-page · language not classified
Published: 2026-04-30
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
Fetched 2026-07-26. Ministry launch of the 2026 season: the GEC runs 1 May to 31 August; permanent wood-heater ban in the Provincia de Santiago plus San Bernardo and Puente Alto; region-wide heater ban from Alerta; pellet ban, extra plate restriction and industrial halts from Preemergencia; indoor-only school activity at Emergencia.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: clm-93376672a8eb34d0

Aire Region Metropolitana (MMA) — Nuevas Medidas del PPDA airerm.mma.gob.cl · background

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-9727c8740f565cff
Publisher: Name not classified · airerm.mma.gob.cl
Type / language: web-page · language not classified
Published: Not recorded
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
Fetched 2026-07-26. Official measure table by level (Bueno, Regular, Alerta, Preemergencia, Emergencia). Confirms the halt of grandes establecimientos applies only at Preemergencia and Emergencia and that the list is held by the Superintendencia del Medio Ambiente. Does not name the declaring authority.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: Background source; no baseline claim points here

Aire Region Metropolitana (MMA) — Calidad del Aire airerm.mma.gob.cl · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-1c172766522c6104
Publisher: Name not classified · airerm.mma.gob.cl
Type / language: web-page · language not classified
Published: Not recorded
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
Fetched 2026-07-26. Source for the network size and the thresholds: RED MACAM with 10 monitoring stations, and ICAP bands of 200 / 300 / 500 corresponding to 24-hour PM2.5 of 80 / 110 / 170 micrograms per cubic metre for Alerta, Preemergencia and Emergencia.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: clm-be48f3ac2b864247

T13 — Declaran la tercera Preemergencia Ambiental del ano en la RM (13 June 2026) t13.cl · background

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-83a6963af3efa538
Publisher: Name not classified · t13.cl
Type / language: web-page · language not classified
Published: 2026-06-13
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
Fetched 2026-07-26. The load-bearing source for who declares: the Delegacion Presidencial Metropolitana declared the episode for Saturday 14 June 2026 on the recommendation of the Seremi de Medio Ambiente, citing the forecast anticyclonic regime. Also gives the plate digits restricted inside and outside the Americo Vespucio ring.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: Background source; no baseline claim points here

SMA — GEC 2026: publica listado de paralizacion de grandes establecimientos (Res. Ex. 1258/2026) portal.sma.gob.cl · background

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-0e9b6b49c70d06e0
Publisher: Name not classified · portal.sma.gob.cl
Type / language: web-page · language not classified
Published: 2026-04-30
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
Fetched 2026-07-26. The opening 2026 shutdown list: five named establishments obliged to halt during Preemergencia or Emergencia from 1 May 2026, and the sanction range of 1 to 10,000 UTA for non-compliance.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: Background source; no baseline claim points here

SMA — GEC 2026: actualiza listado de paralizacion de grandes establecimientos (Res. Ex. 1365/2026) portal.sma.gob.cl · 2 linked claims

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-bfe942212a6c9692
Publisher: Name not classified · portal.sma.gob.cl
Type / language: web-page · language not classified
Published: 2026-05-20
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
Fetched 2026-07-26. The updated list of 20 May 2026: only one of the 55 affected large establishments must suspend operations, the remaining 54 having demonstrated compliance with their emission reduction targets; the single remaining plant is listed for failing to report activity levels and particulate sampling.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: clm-8a68dc25174a1735
clm-3b2bd3faea2b577b

MMA — Mejora la calidad del aire en la RM: en una decada disminuye 66% la exposicion mma.gob.cl · 2 linked claims

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-9240d6c73a64ff05
Publisher: Name not classified · mma.gob.cl
Type / language: web-page · language not classified
Published: 2025-08-29
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
Fetched 2026-07-26. Ministry self-reported balance and the origin of every figure in the impact paragraph's first half: 314 hours in 2025 against 915 in 2015, 23 episodes (20 alerts, 3 pre-emergencies), first PPDA dated to 1997, and the enforcement deltas for vehicle restriction, heaters, agricultural burning and industrial compliance.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: clm-c2ac3d0d4371c710
clm-4801932431603b24

Fundacion Terram — Region Metropolitana supera los episodios ambientales criticos de ultimos dos anos (16 June 2026) terram.cl · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-9ebe6bf6c28f85ed
Publisher: Name not classified · terram.cl
Type / language: web-page · language not classified
Published: 2026-06-16
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
Fetched 2026-07-26. The independent counterweight: 16 episodes by mid-June 2026 against one in 2025 and none in 2024, a 79.2% rainfall deficit, and criticism from former environment minister Marcelo Mena that the plan has not been updated since 2018 despite a revision designed for 2022, plus Zoe Fleming's view that current restrictions are insufficient.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: clm-3776a774f71d0e9d

Barraza, Lambert, Jorquera, Villalobos & Gallardo — Temporal evolution of main ambient PM2.5 sources in Santiago, Chile, from 1998 to 2012, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 17, 10093-10107 (2017) acp.copernicus.org · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-b17e0384807db1cb
Publisher: Name not classified · acp.copernicus.org
Type / language: web-page · language not classified
Published: 2017-08-29
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
Fetched 2026-07-26, abstract read in full. Peer-reviewed source apportionment of 1,243 filter samples: wood burning 12.3 +/- 1.0% of PM2.5 and the only major source that did not significantly change, while motor vehicles, industry, copper smelters and coastal sources all fell significantly. Note the period ends in 2012, six years before the permanent heater ban, so it does not evaluate today's prohibition.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: clm-75d4c84a117b884f

Alvarado, Silva & Caceres — Modelacion de episodios criticos de contaminacion por material particulado (PM10) en Santiago de Chile, Gac Sanit 2010;24(6):480-487 scielo.isciii.es · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-7cfe7cce9926eb86
Publisher: Name not classified · scielo.isciii.es
Type / language: web-page · language not classified
Published: Not recorded
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
Fetched 2026-07-26. Peer-reviewed description of the official forecasting method: the Cassmassi model proposed in 1999, a multiple linear regression forecasting the next day's maximum 24-hour mean concentration, and the PM10 bands then used to classify the day as bueno, alerta, preemergencia or emergencia.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: clm-c48b5c4d12b4f335

Jorquera — Air quality management in Chile: Effectiveness of PM2.5 regulations, Urban Climate 35, 100764 (2021) ing.uc.cl · background

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-886d54d0f807f94d
Publisher: Name not classified · ing.uc.cl
Type / language: web-page · language not classified
Published: Not recorded
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
Fetched 2026-07-26 via the university's publication record, since the article itself is paywalled at the publisher. Peer-reviewed, meteorologically adjusted trends across 33 stations in 23 cities: a significant downward PM2.5 trend in cities with a management plan, Santiago among them. Cited as plan-level evidence only; it does not isolate the episode regime.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: Background source; no baseline claim points here

SINCA (MMA) — Region Metropolitana de Santiago sinca.mma.gob.cl · background

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-2a1c4524645e4b24
Publisher: Name not classified · sinca.mma.gob.cl
Type / language: web-page · language not classified
Published: Not recorded
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
Fetched 2026-07-26. National air quality information system page for the region: the MACAM network has had systematic measurements since 1987 (Santiago Centro, Las Condes, Independencia) and was expanded in 1997 (La Florida, El Bosque, Pudahuel, Cerrillos). Also notes that additional networks installed under project environmental permits are not carried in SINCA.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: Background source; no baseline claim points here

MMA / Aire RM — Plan Operacional de Gestion de Episodios Criticos (GEC) 2026 airerm.mma.gob.cl · background

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID: src-5f18ed3e302bb108
Publisher: Name not classified · airerm.mma.gob.cl
Type / language: pdf · language not classified
Published: Not recorded
Updated: Not recorded
Source last checked: No source-level check date
Record last verified: 2026-07-26
Dossier created: 2026-08-20
Retrieved copy: No local capture recorded
Archive: No archived copy linked
Content hash: No captured content hash
Locator: Open the recorded source note
FETCH FAILED — the 2.8 MB PDF returned as undecodable binary and local PDF rendering was unavailable, so nothing in this entry rests on it. Listed because it is the primary operational document for the season and the editor may want to extract the declaration procedure and station list from it directly.
Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked: Background source; no baseline claim points here

Known limits of this passport

Publisher names and source languages have not yet been classified; domains are recorded without guessing.
Existing source notes are descriptive locators, not page- or paragraph-exact citations.
A missing archive, publication date or content hash is shown as null rather than inferred.
The project-level evidence grade ranks the strongest source in the entry; it is not a truth score for every claim.