clm-58dcb3b989f6e355
quantitative
a May 2010 heat wave that peaked at 46.8°C
Permanent project revision
Revision 2026-10-13-deep-run · effective 2026-10-13
Current revision. This is the snapshot used by the live entity page.
Deep Run 2026-10-11: every source re-read and dated, present-tense statements dated, claim array completed; snippet: The probabilistic seven-day forecast was built by Georgia Tech for the 2013 pilot, when the IMD issued heat forecasts only a little over a day ahead; the IMD took over in 2016 with a five-day maximum-temperature forecast (seven days in the 2026 report). The old sentence merged the two.; snippet: These are the bands the 2018 evaluation describes for 2014–2015; the 2016 plan already draws them at 41.1–43 / 43.1–44.9 / 45°C, and no source states today's bands. Present tense moved to the evaluated years.; snippet: No source describes 'altered school hours' (2026: water breaks in municipal
sha256:0d7730ddc88b406cc42dfbe798504368f2234a9926743611c833feab3adc608c
replace /snapshot/projectFingerprint — Updated projectFingerprint to the current sourced project record.replace /snapshot/asOf — Updated asOf to the current sourced project record.replace /snapshot/claims — Updated claims to the current sourced project record.replace /snapshot/sources — Updated sources to the current sourced project record.The text below is copied verbatim from the published record. Each claim names the source dossiers that carry it; caveats stay attached to the claim they qualify.
clm-58dcb3b989f6e355
quantitative
a May 2010 heat wave that peaked at 46.8°C
clm-10d6518cc252a180
quantitative
an estimated 1,344 excess deaths
clm-17422511b9410d8b
descriptive
what the peer-reviewed literature calls South Asia's first heat-health action plan
clm-f5053f35f5225c6f
quantitative
Its 2013 pilot ran on seven-day probabilistic forecasts from Georgia Tech
clm-d1ce9b731d2c890c
quantitative
since 2016 the India Meteorological Department has supplied the city's maximum-temperature forecasts
clm-58eb758463e8d9b3
quantitative
In the evaluated years a forecast of 41–42.9°C triggered a yellow alert, 43–44.9°C an orange one, and 45°C or above a red one
clm-79cc41994bf3c9b8
descriptive
A nodal officer in the AMC health department coordinates the named actions
clm-87591d17cab3b183
quantitative
in March 2026 these included oral rehydration at every urban health centre, separate heatstroke beds at the municipal general hospital and a 1–4 pm stop on engineering work sites
clm-958915d840027967
quantitative
A pre/post evaluation published in 2018 compared 2007–2010 with 2014–2015
clm-ee2c9e8767399d12
quantitative
the all-cause mortality rate ratio at 47°C fell from 2.34 (95% CI 1.98–2.76) before the plan to 1.25 (95% CI 1.02–1.53) after it, estimating 1,190 (95% CI 162–2,218) annualised deaths avoided
clm-9d6b64b440e3d9d6
descriptive
The design is ecological: it cannot separate the plan from everything else that changed in those years, and the authors call it a pilot evaluation.
clm-b1c8d2bbab6f953f
descriptive
Heat deaths are not a notifiable disease in India, so the low counts of reported heat deaths the city has cited in later summers cannot show the plan's effect on their own.
clm-97da6754a8276003
descriptive
The plan bought almost no sensing.
clm-7c18dfc20f7f79af
descriptive
What it built was an addressee — a forecast, a numbered threshold, and one official whose job is to act on it.
clm-8ec80e0db543d5d3
descriptive
Cities that buy the measurement and leave the last step unassigned end up with a reading nobody owns.
This layer records what is known about each source, what is still missing, and the exact snapshot this page is rendering. A missing date, archive or hash stays visible as missing.
Awaiting operator and domain-expert review; publication of this revision implies neither.
sha256:0d7730ddc88b406cc42dfbe798504368f2234a9926743611c833feab3adc608c
src-d7cbf5a1f5777271Carries the 2010 death toll and the peak temperature: 4,462 all-cause deaths in May 2010, an excess of 1,344 deaths (a 43.1% increase on the reference period), with temperatures reaching 46.8°C. The widely quoted 4,462 is the total for the month, not the excess.
src-160b5cacddf8f27bDescribes how the plan was developed and piloted in 2013; its title calls it 'South Asia's First Heat-Health Action Plan'. The pilot's forecasts were seven-day probabilistic maximum-temperature forecasts from a hybrid system built by Georgia Tech, e-mailed to the AMC nodal officer; the paper notes the IMD then issued heat forecasts only a little over a day ahead.
src-37cedc22896871e7Pilot ecological evaluation comparing 2014–2015 with a 2007–2010 baseline. Gives the alert bands used in those years (yellow 41–42.9°C, orange 43–44.9°C, red 45°C or higher), says activities were coordinated through a nodal officer in the city health department, and reports a maximum rate ratio of 2.34 (95% CI 1.98–2.76) before and 1.25 (1.02–1.53) after the plan at 47°C, with an estimated 1,190 (95% CI 162–2,218) average annualised deaths avoided (2,380 over the two post-plan summers).
src-00fec98eedc24568The AMC's updated plan, hosted by NRDC. It names an AMC nodal officer to head the plan, sets colour alerts at 41.1–43°C (yellow), 43.1–44.9°C (orange) and 45°C or above (red), lists action checklists for agencies, hospitals and health centres, and states that the IMD in Ahmedabad will supply a five-day maximum-temperature forecast from 2016 onwards.
src-77d7c48f962fbd8bReports that the IMD issued a yellow heat alert and a seven-day forecast for Ahmedabad and that the AMC activated its Heat Action Plan: ORS at all urban health centres, special ORS counters and separate heatstroke beds at Ahmedabad Municipal General Hospital, water breaks in municipal schools, and Engineering Department work sites closed from 1 pm to 4 pm.
src-530ca183b4b57cbcTen-year review of the plan. Notes that Ahmedabad has reported fewer than 100 heat deaths a summer in recent years, that heat illness and deaths are not notifiable diseases in India, that an AMC deputy health officer derived the 'nearly 1,100 lives saved' figure from comparison with 2010, and that Odisha prepared a state heat action plan in 1999.
src-ff49f48fc87b83edAhmedabad recorded 44.8°C and the IMD issued an orange alert; the AMC activated its Heat Action Plan and, for the first time, a QR-code system for real-time hotspots and ward-wise temperatures, with special monitoring in 20 wards across six zones.