1001 Smart Cities
🇺🇸 San Francisco

NextMuni: Real-Time Muni Predictions & the Fight Over Who Owned Them

🤖 AI-generated summary · ◆ 10 sourced claims · 🔎 Last verified

This overview was generated with AI from the public sources listed below and checked against them before publication. It has not had a complete human fact-check — treat it as a starting point and follow the sources.

10 sourced claims on this page, none individually verified yet — turn on “Sources in the text” to see each one.

How this atlas is made · What “last verified” means · What “source-checked” means · The full record behind this page

✎ Updated 22 Aug 2026 Publication date recorded for 15 sources. What changed →

In 2009 a licensee claimed to own the arrival predictions the city had paid for and got a rider's app pulled from the App Store. SFMTA wrote ownership into the contract and published a feed.

Outcome🔄 Ongoing
Evidence🏛️ Official
what does this mean?The strongest source is the operator's or the city's own reporting — an official report, dataset or press release. It grades who did the looking — not how well the project went. All four grades →
Run bySan Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA), with NextBus, Inc. and since 2020 Cubic Transportation Systems
Scale🏙️ City-wide
Cost≈$89M for the 2020 replacement contract (Cubic, six years plus two five-year options)
FundingSFMTA capital budget

Part of 1001 Smart Cities — 1,167 documented projects · 🏙️ 9 more in San Francisco · 📊 Open data guide · 📡 Data & IoT projects

SFMTA piloted NextBus arrival predictions on the 22 Fillmore in 1999 and signed the vendor in 2001. In 2009 a licensee claimed to own the predictions and got a rider's app pulled from the App Store; the agency insisted the data was public and published a feed that November. Cubic bought NextBus in 2013, then won the $89M contract to replace it.

Live 📅 since 1999

📊 Impact

SFMTA states the margin of error is under one minute for predictions of five minutes or less, and under two minutes for ten-minute predictions. Those are the operator's own figures; no independent evaluation of NextMuni's prediction accuracy or of its effect on ridership was found. Over 400 shelter displays lost predictions in June 2022 when AT&T switched off 3G.

🎓 Lesson

A city can pay for a measurement and still not own it. San Francisco's predictions only became a public feed after SFMTA wrote ownership into the contract in 2009 and required the vendor to hand over an XML stream. The licence is still not an open one: SFMTA's own deed is revocable and covers timetables only, and the real-time feed riders' apps actually use is the region's, not the city's.

📡 Data & IoTOpen dataPublic transportSensors & IoT

Sources

↗ Streetsblog SF — Does NextBus Own Real-Time Muni Data? (26 Jun 2009)The dispute, sentence-level. NextBus Information Systems (NBIS) told Apple it 'is the sole agent for commercial use of the NextBus real-time prediction data' and held 'exclusive rights to distribution of this data to mobile phones'; Apple pulled the rider-built app Routesy. SFMTA spokesperson Judson True countered that Muni 'owns the data in question and that the public should have access to it'. NBIS was a licensee, distinct from NextBus, Inc., the agency's contractor — the entry keeps them apart.
↗ Electronic Frontier Foundation — Who Controls Data About Public Transportation? (Sep 2009)Published 10 September 2009Independent legal read on the same facts: 'NBIS, like the NYC MTA, appears guilty of copyfraud. They've been unable to produce any proof that they do, in fact, own the data in question.' Records that developer Steven Peterson built Routesy in 2008, that NBIS demanded in June 2009 that it be discontinued, and that his attorney got Apple to restore it once SFMTA clarified ownership.
↗ Streetsblog SF — MTA Publishes NextMuni Arrival Time Feed (12 Nov 2009)The resolution and the contract language the entry rests on: the renegotiated contract 'expressly declared that the MTA owns the data' and obliged the vendor that 'Contractor shall provide necessary technological assistance in placing an XML data stream (via weblink or other SFMTA approved data conveyance)'. Ends a five-month dispute. This is the date a public developer feed existed — ten years after the pilot, and separate from the pilot, the citywide contract and the street displays.
↗ SFMTA — Changes Coming to NextMuni (operator, 12 Aug 2021)Operator chronology and self-criticism: 'When the SFMTA first partnered with NextBus more than twenty years ago to create NextMuni, the real-time transit vehicle arrival predictions system was state-of-the-art.' Names the failure modes the replacement targets — inaccurate predictions near the start of routes, and 'ghost buses' that are predicted and never arrive.
↗ SFMTA — Next Generation Customer Information System (operator, project page)Published 24 January 2018Currency check, July 2026: status still 'Implementation / Construction'; the 2023-2024 phase 'System Enhancements and MuniMobile App' is marked Completed; capital cost line $25.4 million (the SFMTA capital share, not the contract ceiling). Promises 'a more sophisticated and accurate vehicle arrival prediction algorithm' but publishes no accuracy target or measurement, which is why none is claimed here.
Show 10 more sourcesShow fewer
↗ Cubic — Cubic Wins Contract to Deliver Next Generation Customer Information System for San Francisco MTA (1 Oct 2020)The replacement contract, vendor-announced: SFMTA contracted Cubic Transportation Systems 'in an amount not to exceed $88,980,877, for an initial term of six years with two optional five-year terms'. The same amount appears in the SFMTA board calendar item of 16 June 2020 (PDF too large to render in this environment; figure taken from the indexed text and matched against the vendor release).
↗ Cubic Transportation Systems Acquires NextBus, Inc. (Jan 2013)Published 24 January 2013The vendor chain: NextBus, Inc., founded 1997 in Emeryville, passed through Grey Island Systems International and Webtech Wireless before Cubic 'acquired all of the outstanding capital stock of NextBus, Inc. from Webtech Wireless, Inc.' on 24 January 2013 for CAD$20.75 million. NextBus was then in over 100 North American agencies. Cubic later folded the brand into Umo and moved the public API endpoints off webservices.nextbus.com to retro.umoiq.com.
↗ SFMTA — GTFS Transit Data licence (operator, the licence deed)The licence position, verbatim: 'nonexclusive, limited, and revocable'; mandatory notice on derivative works — 'Reproduced with permission granted by the City and County of San Francisco…'; 'The License granted hereunder does not include any right to sublicense.'; SFMTA 'reserves the right to alter or cease to provide the Data at any time without prior notice'; supplied 'as is' with no warranty of accuracy. And the scope limit that matters: 'This is not real-time data, only scheduled service.'
↗ 511 SF Bay (Metropolitan Transportation Commission) — Transit DataWhere the real-time feed actually lives today: the regional 511 portal, not the city's. Carries GTFS, GTFS-Realtime (Trip Updates, Vehicle Positions, Service Alerts) and SIRI/NeTEx APIs, lists SFMTA among operators, requires a registered API token, defaults to '60 requests per 3600 seconds', and applies its own data agreement on top of any operator terms.
↗ SFMTA — AT&T 3G Decommissioning Now Impacting NextMuni Electronic Displays (operator, 8 Jun 2022)Counterweight, sentence-level: 'over 400 NextMuni displays that are currently utilizing AT&T 3G modems will no longer be able to display real-time Muni vehicle arrival predictions'. The street-level layer of a 23-year-old system was switched off by a carrier, not by the agency. Replacement: 'over 700 new Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) displays'.
↗ SFMTA — Over Half Next Generation Muni Shelter Displays Installed (operator, 2 Nov 2022)Rollout progress: over 435 of 800+ planned LCDs installed, replacing the old NextBus signs, 'with an emphasis on underserved neighborhoods'. New displays add crowding data from automatic passenger counters and short-term route changes.
↗ SFMTA — Not Your Ordinary GPS: Tracking Your Ride (operator, accuracy claim)Published 10 November 2014The only accuracy figures found, and they are the operator's own: 'The margin of error overall is less than one minute for predictions of five-minutes or less. For 10-minute predictions, the margin of error is less than two minutes.' The page carries no date, sample or method, and adds that the times 'are simply predictions'. A circulating counter-figure — predictions wrong close to half the time at commute hours, credited to a study by the app company Swyft — could not be verified sentence-level (the carrying SF Examiner article returned HTTP 429 repeatedly) and is deliberately not used.
↗ Lee, Tyner & Vasavda — Moving Minds: The Next Generation of Real-Time Transit Information in San Francisco (peer-reviewed, 2018)Transportation Research Record, 2018. A stated-preference survey of 5,856 Muni customers in English, Spanish and Chinese, run by SFMTA to design the replacement system: facing a 20-minute wait, respondents choosing Muni rose 'from 45 percent with basic information… to as much as 72 percent (with a smartphone app) or 82 percent', and with countdown signs offering alternative routes 'differences among income groups virtually disappeared'. Peer-reviewed but agency-authored, and it measures hypothetical responses to proposed designs, not the deployed system — so it does not lift this entry's evidence grade.
↗ Jerold Chinn — 'Janky' NextBus Muni prediction system gets first round of upgrades (press, 15 Nov 2022)Independent corroboration of the start year — the project 'replaces the 23-year-old NextBus technology (launched 1999)' — and of the handover: SFMTA CTO Lisa Walton called the November 2022 switch 'a soft launch of the new software', phased through 2024, with roughly 800 solar-powered signs for locations without power.
↗ IET/IEE — London Transport's Countdown system: a leader in the bus transport revolution (1993) (precedence check)Why this entry claims no superlative. London Transport trialled Passenger Information at Bus Stops on Route 18 in 1992 and installed the first Countdown signs in autumn 1992 — street-level arrival displays seven years before San Francisco's pilot; the 1993 conference paper independently fixes the system before 1994. A US research precedent also exists: MyBus, built at the University of Washington by Daniel Dailey in the mid-1990s, which was not verified sentence-level here and is therefore only noted, not asserted. San Francisco is early and consequential, not first — and it is by some years the oldest real-time transit feed in this atlas.

📅 How old is the evidence?

Two clocks, kept apart: when this entry’s sources were published, and what has happened to its record in the atlas. Documented span: since 1999. 9 of 15 sources carry a publication date, from 26 June 2009 to 2 November 2022.

When the sources were published

  1. Streetsblog SF · pressStreetsblog SF — Does NextBus Own Real-Time Muni Data? (26 Jun 2009)
  2. Electronic Frontier Foundation · ngoElectronic Frontier Foundation — Who Controls Data About Public Transportation? (Sep 2009)
  3. Streetsblog SF · pressStreetsblog SF — MTA Publishes NextMuni Arrival Time Feed (12 Nov 2009)
  4. Mass Transit Magazine (Endeavor Business Media) · pressCubic Transportation Systems Acquires NextBus, Inc. (Jan 2013)
  5. San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA) · operatorSFMTA — Not Your Ordinary GPS: Tracking Your Ride (operator, accuracy claim)
  6. San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA) · operatorSFMTA — Next Generation Customer Information System (operator, project page)
  7. San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA) · operatorSFMTA — Changes Coming to NextMuni (operator, 12 Aug 2021)
  8. San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA) · operatorSFMTA — AT&T 3G Decommissioning Now Impacting NextMuni Electronic Displays (operator, 8 Jun 2022)
Show 1 more dated sourcesShow fewer
  1. San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA) · operatorSFMTA — Over Half Next Generation Muni Shelter Displays Installed (operator, 2 Nov 2022)

Every source, with links ↑

What happened to this record

  1. Sources last read
  2. Entered the record
  3. Publication date recorded for 15 sources

Every revision, permanent →

Show your work What this page rests on and what it can’t tell you · all 10 claims with their sources · the forensic record

Evidence Passport · public beta 10 addressable claims, 15 source dossiers, one permanent baseline. The passport is unreviewed — an AI-assisted structural migration, not a human or expert endorsement. Every revision keeps a permanent copy under revision history.

Inspect the claims, one by one — verbatim text, sources and caveats for all 10

The text below is copied verbatim from the published record. Each claim names the source dossiers that carry it; caveats stay attached to the claim they qualify.

Claim 1 clm-81dfa88990935707 quantitative
SFMTA piloted NextBus arrival predictions on the 22 Fillmore in 1999
Published field
snippet · verbatim
Mapping
mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says
Independent press fixes the start year while reporting the replacement — the project 'replaces the 23-year-old NextBus technology (launched 1999)' — and the operator's own account describes partnering with NextBus 'more than twenty years ago'.
Caveat
Neither source names the pilot route. The 1999 date is carried by both; the 22 Fillmore is not.

Sources carrying this claim

  1. Jerold Chinn — 'Janky' NextBus Muni prediction system gets first round of upgrades (press, 15 Nov 2022)
  2. SFMTA — Changes Coming to NextMuni (operator, 12 Aug 2021)
Claim 2 clm-d4200859922c3822 quantitative
In 2009 a licensee claimed to own the predictions and got a rider's app pulled from the App Store
Published field
snippet · verbatim
Mapping
mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says
NextBus Information Systems told Apple it 'is the sole agent for commercial use of the NextBus real-time prediction data' and held 'exclusive rights to distribution of this data to mobile phones'; Apple pulled the rider-built app Routesy. The EFF records that developer Steven Peterson built Routesy in 2008, that NBIS demanded in June 2009 that it be discontinued, and that his attorney got Apple to restore it once the agency clarified ownership.
Caveat
NBIS was a licensee, not the agency's contractor NextBus, Inc. The entry keeps the two apart, and the claim is about the licensee.

Sources carrying this claim

  1. Streetsblog SF — Does NextBus Own Real-Time Muni Data? (26 Jun 2009)
  2. Electronic Frontier Foundation — Who Controls Data About Public Transportation? (Sep 2009)
Claim 3 clm-fd47eae522a70989 descriptive
the agency insisted the data was public and published a feed that November
Published field
snippet · verbatim
Mapping
mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says
SFMTA's spokesperson said in June 2009 that Muni 'owns the data in question and that the public should have access to it'; the November report records the feed going live and ends a five-month dispute.
Caveat
No claim-specific caveat recorded

Sources carrying this claim

  1. Streetsblog SF — Does NextBus Own Real-Time Muni Data? (26 Jun 2009)
  2. Streetsblog SF — MTA Publishes NextMuni Arrival Time Feed (12 Nov 2009)
Claim 4 clm-d3a3806fea011e30 quantitative
Cubic bought NextBus in 2013, then won the $89M contract to replace it
Published field
snippet · verbatim
Mapping
mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says
Cubic 'acquired all of the outstanding capital stock of NextBus, Inc. from Webtech Wireless, Inc.' on 24 January 2013 for CAD$20.75 million, and in October 2020 announced that SFMTA had contracted it 'in an amount not to exceed $88,980,877, for an initial term of six years with two optional five-year terms'.
Caveat
Both are vendor announcements. The $88,980,877 figure was matched against the SFMTA board calendar item of 16 June 2020, whose PDF could not be rendered here.

Sources carrying this claim

  1. Cubic Transportation Systems Acquires NextBus, Inc. (Jan 2013)
  2. Cubic — Cubic Wins Contract to Deliver Next Generation Customer Information System for San Francisco MTA (1 Oct 2020)
Claim 5 clm-150b2fb70ee08d16 descriptive
SFMTA states the margin of error is under one minute for predictions of five minutes or less, and under two minutes for ten-minute predictions
Published field
impact · verbatim
Mapping
mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says
The operator's page states it directly: 'The margin of error overall is less than one minute for predictions of five-minutes or less. For 10-minute predictions, the margin of error is less than two minutes.'
Caveat
The page carries no date, no sample and no method, and says the times 'are simply predictions'. This is a self-reported figure, which is why the entry attributes it to SFMTA in the sentence itself.

Sources carrying this claim

  1. SFMTA — Not Your Ordinary GPS: Tracking Your Ride (operator, accuracy claim)
Claim 6 clm-e57388b5f772a5a5 descriptive
no independent evaluation of NextMuni's prediction accuracy or of its effect on ridership was found
Published field
impact · verbatim
Mapping
mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says
The nearest thing is peer-reviewed but agency-authored, and it measures stated preferences about proposed designs — how 5,856 surveyed customers said they would respond to a twenty-minute wait — rather than the accuracy of the deployed system. The replacement project page promises 'a more sophisticated and accurate vehicle arrival prediction algorithm' but publishes no accuracy target and no measurement.
Caveat
This is an absence, and an absence cannot be sourced directly. A circulating counter-figure, credited to a study by the app company Swyft, could not be verified sentence-level and is deliberately not used.

Sources carrying this claim

  1. Lee, Tyner & Vasavda — Moving Minds: The Next Generation of Real-Time Transit Information in San Francisco (peer-reviewed, 2018)
  2. SFMTA — Next Generation Customer Information System (operator, project page)
Claim 7 clm-845c453be2deb71c quantitative
Over 400 shelter displays lost predictions in June 2022 when AT&T switched off 3G
Published field
impact · verbatim
Mapping
mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says
The operator announced that 'over 400 NextMuni displays that are currently utilizing AT&T 3G modems will no longer be able to display real-time Muni vehicle arrival predictions', and by November reported over 435 of more than 800 planned LCD replacements installed.
Caveat
No claim-specific caveat recorded

Sources carrying this claim

  1. SFMTA — AT&T 3G Decommissioning Now Impacting NextMuni Electronic Displays (operator, 8 Jun 2022)
  2. SFMTA — Over Half Next Generation Muni Shelter Displays Installed (operator, 2 Nov 2022)
Claim 8 clm-fe8821e09d0b1ec0 quantitative
San Francisco's predictions only became a public feed after SFMTA wrote ownership into the contract in 2009 and required the vendor to hand over an XML stream
Published field
lesson · verbatim
Mapping
mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says
The renegotiated contract 'expressly declared that the MTA owns the data' and obliged the vendor that 'Contractor shall provide necessary technological assistance in placing an XML data stream (via weblink or other SFMTA approved data conveyance)'. That is the date a public developer feed existed — ten years after the pilot.
Caveat
No claim-specific caveat recorded

Sources carrying this claim

  1. Streetsblog SF — MTA Publishes NextMuni Arrival Time Feed (12 Nov 2009)
Claim 9 clm-144fddc2c5ac8bdb descriptive
SFMTA's own deed is revocable and covers timetables only
Published field
lesson · verbatim
Mapping
mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says
The deed describes itself as 'nonexclusive, limited, and revocable', reserves 'the right to alter or cease to provide the Data at any time without prior notice', forbids sublicensing, and states the scope limit plainly: 'This is not real-time data, only scheduled service.'
Caveat
No claim-specific caveat recorded

Sources carrying this claim

  1. SFMTA — GTFS Transit Data licence (operator, the licence deed)
Claim 10 clm-1e543124178e78a1 descriptive
the real-time feed riders' apps actually use is the region's, not the city's
Published field
lesson · verbatim
Mapping
mapped · no interpretation or interpolation added by this passport
What the mapping says
The regional 511 portal is where GTFS-Realtime lives — Trip Updates, Vehicle Positions and Service Alerts, plus SIRI and NeTEx APIs — and it lists SFMTA among its operators. Access needs a registered token, defaults to '60 requests per 3600 seconds', and carries the region's own data agreement on top of any operator terms.
Caveat
No claim-specific caveat recorded

Sources carrying this claim

  1. 511 SF Bay (Metropolitan Transportation Commission) — Transit Data
Forensic record — source dossiers, gaps, hashes and the exact revision this page renders

This layer records what is known about each source, what is still missing, and the exact snapshot this page is rendering. A missing date, archive or hash stays visible as missing.

unreviewed Revision 2026-08-21-source-dates effective 2026-07-26 · created 2026-08-22

Awaiting operator and domain-expert review; publication of this revision implies neither.

sha256:ffedb9097c24cea7f3e0c6ec94f0e0363ab14c653a3cb37c3004aaa333b26e72
Revision history → Permanent version link → Machine-readable record → Evidence Constitution →
10
of 10 claims mapped
15
source dossiers
11
publication dates recorded
0
archives linked
0
exact locators
0
content captures hashed

Governance facts carried by the record

Operator
San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA), with NextBus, Inc. and since 2020 Cubic Transportation Systems
Actor types
utility, private
Funding model
public
Funding description
SFMTA capital budget
Cost
≈$89M for the 2020 replacement contract (Cubic, six years plus two five-year options)
Ownership
Not recorded
Decision rights
Not recorded
Exit conditions
Not recorded

15 source dossiers

Streetsblog SF — Does NextBus Own Real-Time Muni Data? (26 Jun 2009) sf.streetsblog.org · 2 linked claims

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-3aef36150471d0b5
Publisher
Name not classified · sf.streetsblog.org
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
2009-06-26
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

The dispute, sentence-level. NextBus Information Systems (NBIS) told Apple it 'is the sole agent for commercial use of the NextBus real-time prediction data' and held 'exclusive rights to distribution of this data to mobile phones'; Apple pulled the rider-built app Routesy. SFMTA spokesperson Judson True countered that Muni 'owns the data in question and that the public should have access to it'. NBIS was a licensee, distinct from NextBus, Inc., the agency's contractor — the entry keeps them apart.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
Electronic Frontier Foundation — Who Controls Data About Public Transportation? (Sep 2009) eff.org · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-84f2ba513f9ba19a
Publisher
Name not classified · eff.org
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
2009-09-10
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

Independent legal read on the same facts: 'NBIS, like the NYC MTA, appears guilty of copyfraud. They've been unable to produce any proof that they do, in fact, own the data in question.' Records that developer Steven Peterson built Routesy in 2008, that NBIS demanded in June 2009 that it be discontinued, and that his attorney got Apple to restore it once SFMTA clarified ownership.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
Streetsblog SF — MTA Publishes NextMuni Arrival Time Feed (12 Nov 2009) sf.streetsblog.org · 2 linked claims

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-49b1901f94e7f737
Publisher
Name not classified · sf.streetsblog.org
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
2009-11-12
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

The resolution and the contract language the entry rests on: the renegotiated contract 'expressly declared that the MTA owns the data' and obliged the vendor that 'Contractor shall provide necessary technological assistance in placing an XML data stream (via weblink or other SFMTA approved data conveyance)'. Ends a five-month dispute. This is the date a public developer feed existed — ten years after the pilot, and separate from the pilot, the citywide contract and the street displays.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
SFMTA — Changes Coming to NextMuni (operator, 12 Aug 2021) sfmta.com · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-a45b8c03be25dc8e
Publisher
Name not classified · sfmta.com
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
2021-08-12
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

Operator chronology and self-criticism: 'When the SFMTA first partnered with NextBus more than twenty years ago to create NextMuni, the real-time transit vehicle arrival predictions system was state-of-the-art.' Names the failure modes the replacement targets — inaccurate predictions near the start of routes, and 'ghost buses' that are predicted and never arrive.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
SFMTA — Next Generation Customer Information System (operator, project page) sfmta.com · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-de1cc422f4c752f4
Publisher
Name not classified · sfmta.com
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
2018-01-24
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

Currency check, July 2026: status still 'Implementation / Construction'; the 2023-2024 phase 'System Enhancements and MuniMobile App' is marked Completed; capital cost line $25.4 million (the SFMTA capital share, not the contract ceiling). Promises 'a more sophisticated and accurate vehicle arrival prediction algorithm' but publishes no accuracy target or measurement, which is why none is claimed here.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
Cubic — Cubic Wins Contract to Deliver Next Generation Customer Information System for San Francisco MTA (1 Oct 2020) businesswire.com · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-1bed567e01f2a4ba
Publisher
Name not classified · businesswire.com
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
2020-10-01
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

The replacement contract, vendor-announced: SFMTA contracted Cubic Transportation Systems 'in an amount not to exceed $88,980,877, for an initial term of six years with two optional five-year terms'. The same amount appears in the SFMTA board calendar item of 16 June 2020 (PDF too large to render in this environment; figure taken from the indexed text and matched against the vendor release).

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
Cubic Transportation Systems Acquires NextBus, Inc. (Jan 2013) masstransitmag.com · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-ed5a6eccc12f3d4e
Publisher
Name not classified · masstransitmag.com
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
2013-01-24
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

The vendor chain: NextBus, Inc., founded 1997 in Emeryville, passed through Grey Island Systems International and Webtech Wireless before Cubic 'acquired all of the outstanding capital stock of NextBus, Inc. from Webtech Wireless, Inc.' on 24 January 2013 for CAD$20.75 million. NextBus was then in over 100 North American agencies. Cubic later folded the brand into Umo and moved the public API endpoints off webservices.nextbus.com to retro.umoiq.com.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
SFMTA — GTFS Transit Data licence (operator, the licence deed) sfmta.com · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-38f90720a202bcf1
Publisher
Name not classified · sfmta.com
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
Not recorded
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

The licence position, verbatim: 'nonexclusive, limited, and revocable'; mandatory notice on derivative works — 'Reproduced with permission granted by the City and County of San Francisco…'; 'The License granted hereunder does not include any right to sublicense.'; SFMTA 'reserves the right to alter or cease to provide the Data at any time without prior notice'; supplied 'as is' with no warranty of accuracy. And the scope limit that matters: 'This is not real-time data, only scheduled service.'

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
511 SF Bay (Metropolitan Transportation Commission) — Transit Data 511.org · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-8aca195a7a160a44
Publisher
Name not classified · 511.org
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
Not recorded
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

Where the real-time feed actually lives today: the regional 511 portal, not the city's. Carries GTFS, GTFS-Realtime (Trip Updates, Vehicle Positions, Service Alerts) and SIRI/NeTEx APIs, lists SFMTA among operators, requires a registered API token, defaults to '60 requests per 3600 seconds', and applies its own data agreement on top of any operator terms.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
SFMTA — AT&T 3G Decommissioning Now Impacting NextMuni Electronic Displays (operator, 8 Jun 2022) sfmta.com · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-e52d92b7422a41e7
Publisher
Name not classified · sfmta.com
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
2022-06-08
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

Counterweight, sentence-level: 'over 400 NextMuni displays that are currently utilizing AT&T 3G modems will no longer be able to display real-time Muni vehicle arrival predictions'. The street-level layer of a 23-year-old system was switched off by a carrier, not by the agency. Replacement: 'over 700 new Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) displays'.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
SFMTA — Over Half Next Generation Muni Shelter Displays Installed (operator, 2 Nov 2022) sfmta.com · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-b4f40956f85d259b
Publisher
Name not classified · sfmta.com
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
2022-11-02
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

Rollout progress: over 435 of 800+ planned LCDs installed, replacing the old NextBus signs, 'with an emphasis on underserved neighborhoods'. New displays add crowding data from automatic passenger counters and short-term route changes.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
SFMTA — Not Your Ordinary GPS: Tracking Your Ride (operator, accuracy claim) sfmta.com · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-73a80654ebf38adc
Publisher
Name not classified · sfmta.com
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
2014-11-10
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

The only accuracy figures found, and they are the operator's own: 'The margin of error overall is less than one minute for predictions of five-minutes or less. For 10-minute predictions, the margin of error is less than two minutes.' The page carries no date, sample or method, and adds that the times 'are simply predictions'. A circulating counter-figure — predictions wrong close to half the time at commute hours, credited to a study by the app company Swyft — could not be verified sentence-level (the carrying SF Examiner article returned HTTP 429 repeatedly) and is deliberately not used.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
Lee, Tyner & Vasavda — Moving Minds: The Next Generation of Real-Time Transit Information in San Francisco (peer-reviewed, 2018) journals.sagepub.com · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-70cbdb689a719571
Publisher
Name not classified · journals.sagepub.com
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
Not recorded
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

Transportation Research Record, 2018. A stated-preference survey of 5,856 Muni customers in English, Spanish and Chinese, run by SFMTA to design the replacement system: facing a 20-minute wait, respondents choosing Muni rose 'from 45 percent with basic information… to as much as 72 percent (with a smartphone app) or 82 percent', and with countdown signs offering alternative routes 'differences among income groups virtually disappeared'. Peer-reviewed but agency-authored, and it measures hypothetical responses to proposed designs, not the deployed system — so it does not lift this entry's evidence grade.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
Jerold Chinn — 'Janky' NextBus Muni prediction system gets first round of upgrades (press, 15 Nov 2022) jeroldchinn.medium.com · 1 linked claim

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-f72a50b6e22bda30
Publisher
Name not classified · jeroldchinn.medium.com
Type / language
web-page · language not classified
Published
2022-11-15
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

Independent corroboration of the start year — the project 'replaces the 23-year-old NextBus technology (launched 1999)' — and of the handover: SFMTA CTO Lisa Walton called the November 2022 switch 'a soft launch of the new software', phased through 2024, with roughly 800 solar-powered signs for locations without power.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
IET/IEE — London Transport's Countdown system: a leader in the bus transport revolution (1993) (precedence check) ieeexplore.ieee.org · background

Open original source ↗

Stable source ID
src-6ae21ee7ef204ce0
Publisher
Name not classified · ieeexplore.ieee.org
Type / language
pdf · language not classified
Published
Not recorded
Updated
Not recorded
Source last checked
No source-level check date
Record last verified
2026-07-26
Dossier created
2026-08-22
Retrieved copy
No local capture recorded
Archive
No archived copy linked
Content hash
No captured content hash
Locator
Open the recorded source note

Why this entry claims no superlative. London Transport trialled Passenger Information at Bus Stops on Route 18 in 1992 and installed the first Countdown signs in autumn 1992 — street-level arrival displays seven years before San Francisco's pilot; the 1993 conference paper independently fixes the system before 1994. A US research precedent also exists: MyBus, built at the University of Washington by Daniel Dailey in the mid-1990s, which was not verified sentence-level here and is therefore only noted, not asserted. San Francisco is early and consequential, not first — and it is by some years the oldest real-time transit feed in this atlas.

Descriptive only — not page/paragraph exact
Claims linked
Background source; no baseline claim points here
Known limits of this passport
  • Publisher names and source languages have not yet been classified; domains are recorded without guessing.
  • Existing source notes are descriptive locators, not page- or paragraph-exact citations.
  • A missing archive, publication date or content hash is shown as null rather than inferred.
  • The project-level evidence grade ranks the strongest source in the entry; it is not a truth score for every claim.

Continue exploring

Compare this project

🇺🇸 CTA Bus Tracker, Train Tracker & the Developer Feeds · Chicago Two transit feeds, two bespoke revocable deeds: Chicago's limits you to helping riders, San Francisco's was won from a vendor in 2009. 🇺🇸 DataSF and San Francisco's Open Data Law · San Francisco One city, two licences: the portal dedicates its data to the public domain, while SFMTA's own transit deed is revocable and schedule-only. 🇺🇸 Clipper: One Card for Two Dozen Bay Area Operators, and the Rebuild That Ran Late · San Francisco The rider-facing layer keeps ending up regional: MTC runs the fare card, and the live feed apps read is 511's, not the city's.

Explore the wider context

🌍 Hardware Stops, Data Doesn't📖 GTFS (General Transit Feed Specification)📖 Open data📖 Urban data platform (UDP)
📎 Cite this project

1001 Smart Cities (2026). “NextMuni: Real-Time Muni Predictions & the Fight Over Who Owned Them” — San Francisco, United States. The Smart City Atlas. https://1001smartcities.org/projects/sf-nextmuni/ (last verified 2026-07-26). Data: CC BY 4.0.

The underlying data is free to reuse with attribution — see the open data page.

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