Permanent project revision
Revision 2026-08-22-evidence-baseline · effective 2026-07-26
Current revision. This is the snapshot used by the live entity page.
Created the first structured Evidence Passport with 13 claims and 12 source dossiers.
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add /evidencePassport — Added claim-level evidence mapping and source dossiers.add /revisionHistory — Established a permanent, hash-addressed baseline revision.The text below is copied verbatim from the published record. Each claim names the source dossiers that carry it; caveats stay attached to the claim they qualify.
clm-1cd3f79bcee30790
descriptive
Muni Metro drivers steer by hand on San Francisco's streets, then hand the train over at the subway portal: the Advanced Train Control System drives it through the Market Street tunnel, with the operator aboard and ready to take back control.
clm-e19a330285ce2baa
quantitative
The 1998 cutover gridlocked the subway
clm-309b2c44f05df1e5
descriptive
trains sent down wrong tracks, emergency brakes dropping
clm-bd0b4c485c4aefe4
descriptive
riders forcing doors open underground
clm-274ec6a687e48a4e
quantitative
SFMTA now calls the 1980s technology obsolete
clm-3e4d811599e0c95d
quantitative
signed a US$212M Hitachi Rail replacement in January 2025
clm-57b32da3ffa1d4de
quantitative
running to 2034
clm-e1d028a3d0ea4d20
descriptive
SFMTA reports the ageing system causes daily delays
clm-532f0140c160b937
descriptive
a train that loses its data link to ATCS must run in manual mode at half its maximum speed, which slows every train behind it
clm-1e597fd38e09f540
quantitative
SFMTA and Hitachi Rail project the replacement will add up to 20% capacity — a target, not a measurement.
clm-abb48b6eacddc990
quantitative
Muni switched on ATCS and the new subway turnback together in 1998
clm-c2809b968041b45a
quantitative
the replacement contract was signed in January 2025
clm-7d3d916fc29dbda3
quantitative
does not finish before 2032
This layer records what is known about each source, what is still missing, and the exact snapshot this page is rendering. A missing date, archive or hash stays visible as missing.
Awaiting operator and domain-expert review; publication of this revision implies neither.
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src-6ce6ac0c7d42247aThe load-bearing source for the hybrid. 'The ATCS operates trains in the subway, keeping them safely and appropriately spaced apart by controlling train speeds, switches and signals', while 'Muni Metro trains operate under the control of the train operator on San Francisco streets'. An operator rides every train and 'is always prepared to take over if necessary'. Also the failure mode: when the handshake fails 'the train must travel in manual mode at half its maximum speed, which also slows all other trains along the network'. Calls ATCS 'one of the first computerized train control systems in the United States' — the entry attributes rather than asserts that.
src-df30cbed7e1f6339Dates and characterises the system being replaced: 'based on 1980s technology that was installed in the Market Street subway in 1998', 'designed to last 20 to 25 years', with obsolete components that 'are no longer made'.
src-3af25e989dd2246fSeven overlapping phases. Phase 1 installs CBTC 'at street level along the Embarcadero and Third Street corridors' from 2026; Phase 2 installs and activates it 'in the subway alongside the existing Automatic Train Control System' in 2027 or 2028; N Judah around 2028, T Third/K Ingleside/M Ocean View 2029, J Church/L Taraval 2030; 'complete installation between 2032 and 2034'.
src-f5e9e7c39a0b3bb1Contract source, sentence-level: 'We finalized a historic supplier contract with Hitachi Rail in January 2025.' Approximately US$212M for design and procurement, up to US$114M for ten years of post-project support 2032-2042, and an option on a further US$238M for 2042-2052. Describes the existing installation as '30-year-old tech in the subway'.
src-083b91c7a07578bbSource for the delay claim: 'in its current condition, train control has caused an increasing number of delays to Muni's rail service due to daily communication failures, train timeouts and component failures.' PDF; could not be rendered by the review tooling, sentence verified through the search index of the same document.
src-4d58ba39f9ae63beThe account of the launch: 'The first day of the new ATCS system and full use of the Muni Metro turnback, in 1998, was a spectacular and total failure, dubbed the Muni Metro Meltdown by the press. Subway service gridlocked, leaving passengers to force open doors in mid-tunnel to escape.' Also the context — a new moving-block system introduced alongside an incomplete Breda fleet replacement. The exact day is not settled: community posts give 24 August 1998, no press original was reachable, so the entry says 1998 and nothing finer.
src-e178bdc5068c0c71Corroborates the season and the failure modes only: the 'Muni meltdown' of 'the summer of 1998', with the system 'sending trains down the wrong tracks, and, more often, inappropriately applying emergency braking', and the San Francisco Chronicle stunt in which a reporter on foot beat a reporter riding the subway across downtown. Not relied on for any number.
src-4f0ce597b0966bd3Independent confirmation of the replacement scope and sequence: first phase puts CBTC on street-running track for the first time, on the Embarcadero and Third Street corridors; tunnel fit-out 2027-28; programme completion 2034. Also identifies the continuity — the replacement is a later generation of the same SelTrac family, originally Alcatel's inductive-loop moving-block product and now owned by Hitachi Rail. Note the framing limit: Vancouver's SkyTrain has run the same SelTrac lineage since 1985, so no 'oldest in North America' claim is made.
src-60196cdc5a94041aCarries the capacity target as a projection — capacity gains of 'up to 20 percent' across the 71-mile network — plus 'Passenger services using the new system are currently expected to begin between 2028 and 2034' and the WSP / PGH Wong programme-management joint venture.
src-e0daba9a340befbeVendor confirmation of scope: SelTrac CBTC across the 71-mile, 33-station network, a single system covering both subway and surface, with a ten-year service support agreement and an option for ten more. Vendor material — used only for scope, not for benefits.
src-20cc2f308899ac67Funding source: a US$130M grant from California's Transit and Intercity Rail Capital Program for Phase 2, following a US$30M TIRCP grant for Phase 1 in July 2022, against a stated total of about US$700M for all seven phases. The page returned an empty body to the review tooling; the figures were verified through the search index of the same page.
src-97b579e420e8116aThe budget-crisis counterweight, and the distinction that matters: the crisis is on the operating side. SFMTA faced a US$307M shortfall in the year beginning 1 July 2026, closed with a US$200M state loan routed through the Metropolitan Transportation Commission; the board adopted a balanced two-year budget on 21 April 2026. No source found says the capital train-control programme has been cut or deferred because of it — and none found confirms that the later phases are fully committed either.