Permanent project revision
Revision 2026-08-20-source-dates · effective 2026-07-26
Current revision. This is the snapshot used by the live entity page.
Created the first structured Evidence Passport with 1 claim and 11 source dossiers.
sha256:37bc4b2f9495a654d589ac5fdf38b455d15fa6ec5b1fc14dc62673035f6809fb
add /evidencePassport — Added claim-level evidence mapping and source dossiers.add /revisionHistory — Established a permanent, hash-addressed baseline revision.The text below is copied verbatim from the published record. Each claim names the source dossiers that carry it; caveats stay attached to the claim they qualify.
clm-619fc4b84323d3ae
quantitative
A randomised trial across the Foothill, North Hollywood and Southwest divisions found patrols directed by the ETAS algorithm behind PredPol cut crime volume by an average 7.4% against analyst-drawn hotspots
This layer records what is known about each source, what is still missing, and the exact snapshot this page is rendering. A missing date, archive or hash stays visible as missing.
Awaiting operator and domain-expert review; publication of this revision implies neither.
sha256:37bc4b2f9495a654d589ac5fdf38b455d15fa6ec5b1fc14dc62673035f6809fb
src-190673b2088f0210The load-bearing document, and the reason the two programmes sit in one entry: the department's own watchdog reviewed Operation LASER (Chronic Offender component and LASER zones) and PredPol together, and reported to the Police Commission on 12 Mar 2019. Caution for a future check: the file is a 1.4 MB scan that did not yield machine-readable text in this review, so its findings are cited here through contemporaneous reports of it rather than quoted from the original.
src-151de7b56a8b53ccReporting of the Inspector General's findings: the chronic-offender labelling 'lacked oversight' and used 'inconsistent criteria'; 44% of designated chronic offenders had zero or one violent-crime arrest and about half had none for a gun-related crime; the effectiveness of the place-based component 'couldn't be determined'. Records that Moore had already suspended the tool in August 2018.
src-33194d4adebd1ba5Announcement date and Chief Michel Moore's own words: the tool 'did not bear the types of results that in the face of its criticism and the face of concerns relative to whether or not the underlying algorithm truly was fair and unbiased for us to continue going forward'. Also the two facts that keep this entry honest in both directions: the place-based LASER zones were kept and 'retooled' toward micro hot spots of about 500 by 500 feet rather than abolished, and the Inspector General found the racial makeup of those labelled chronic offenders 'comparable to the demographics of those arrested for violent crimes in the city'.
src-8741d0a313afc196Carries the LAPD memo of 15 April 2020 verbatim: 'The city's financial crisis, coupled with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, has resulted in the immediate freeze of new contractual agreements... Therefore, the Department will immediately discontinue the use of PredPol and its associated reports.' Also dates the LAPD's PredPol contract to 2011, and notes that campaigners dispute the budget explanation and credit their own pressure.
src-effc6ccc2ce738ffQuotes the Inspector General directly — '[T]he OIG cautions against drawing strong conclusions from the available statistics' — and explains why: the recorded 'dosage', the time officers actually spent in a targeted area, was too imprecise to attribute any crime change to the programme.
src-6eab68d5b60ea5ecOrigin and structure, from the federal grant programme that paid for it: LASER was established in September 2011 in Newton Division with two distinct components, a chronic-offender component and a chronic-location component. This is the source that keeps the person-based and place-based halves separate.
src-3332cd74bf3dfe37The randomised trial behind the headline figure, run in three LAPD divisions (and separately in Kent, UK). Read with its conflicts visible: the author list includes an LAPD officer and P. Jeffrey Brantingham, PredPol's co-founder, so it is peer-reviewed but not arm's-length.
src-fd02472deb8860b3Independent US Department of Justice assessment of that trial: rated 'Promising | One study', naming the Foothill, North Hollywood and Southwest divisions and the average 7.4% reduction in crime volume. Also the currency check — the page states the LAPD no longer uses the programme, and that the software later traded as PredPol and then Geolitica.
src-5433f185a8781c3cThe strongest case the supporters had: a significant reduction in gun crime in Newton reporting districts against other divisions, found only where the chronic-offender and chronic-location components were applied together. Not independent — Uchida's firm was the programme's own Smart Policing Initiative research partner.
src-508851435eda9d68Independent peer-reviewed ethnography of this specific department, from more than two and a half years of fieldwork and 75 interviews: discretionary risk judgements become numeric scores, data are used predictively rather than reactively, automated alerts widen the surveilled population, and people with no direct police contact enter the databases.
src-8d5b1e99cc16a737Advocacy source, labelled as such. The coalition's public-records campaign and its reports Before the Bullet Hits the Body (2018) and Automating Banishment (2021) forced much of the documentation into public view; it also argues the LAPD's successor framework, announced as the programmes wound down, is a rebrand rather than an end. That characterisation is the coalition's, not a verified finding.